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The limitations of randomised controlled trials

In recent years, the use of randomised controlled trials has spread from labour market and welfare programme evaluation to other areas of economics (and to other social sciences), perhaps most prominently in development and health economics. This column argues that … Continue reading

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David Aldous’ review of the Black Swan

The phrase “Black Swan” (arising earlier in the different context of Popperian falsification) is here defined as an event characterized [p. xviii] by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability, and Taleb’s thesis is that such events have … Continue reading

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